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Electricity OUTLOOK: Powering NewYork City’s Economic Future
Major New Projects
Require Significant Additional Electricity Capacity
The
sizeable number of major new projects and developments
that are underway, planned or proposed throughout all five
boroughs exemplify the favorable outlook for growth in
the City.
The rebuilding of the World Trade Center site
is underway: construction of the #7 office tower is nearly
complete, construction of the permanent PATH Station and
the nearby Fulton Transit Center has begun, and groundwork
is expected to start soon on the Freedom Tower.
Other major projects proposed or planned
throughout the City include:
- A substantial volume of new
housing for all five boroughs by both the private and public
sectors;
- Office development
of at least 44 million square feet to becompleted by 2025;
- Major public capital projects, and new
developments and expansions by universities and hospitals
in the City;
- Construction
of 90 new schools throughout the five boroughs from
2005-2009, at a cost of more than $4.6 billion, as part
of the New
York City School Construction Authority’s (SCA) capital
plans, and SCA
renovations and expansions expected to cost twice that
amount.
These projects will transform major districts throughout
the City and add substantial new capacity for office, residential
and commercial space, public facilities and transportation.
All will require significant new electricity resources. The
proposed Hudson Yards project alone is estimated to require
200 MW of electricity at the level of development assumed
by 2025.2
It is expected that 6,000 to 7,000 MW of additional electric
resources will be needed in New York City between now and
2025. This new capacity is required to accommodate growth,
for replacement of existing power plants that will reach
their useful age limitation during this time, and for stability of electricity
prices.
Robust Growth Expected by 2025
Total jobs in New York City
are expected to increase from 4.15 million in 2002 to 4.46
million in 2010, a gain of 315,000, or 7.6 percent. By
2025, total employment levels are forecast to reach 5.03
million, for a total gain of 887,300 jobs, a 21 percent increase
over 2002.
The latest projections also suggest that New York City’s
population could increase from the estimated level of 8,072,000
in 2002 to 8.4 million by 2010, a gain of over 400,000, and
reach 9,352,500 by 2025 for a total gain of 1.28 million or
16 percent.
Population gains are expected to be largest in Queens,
which is forecast to increase by 527,000 residents between
2000 and 2025, followed by 300,000 in Brooklyn, and 150,000
in Manhattan.
This population growth
will require significant electricity resources to supply
new households and the appliances they use.
The rate of
electricity usage by households and offices has intensified
in recent years, largely due to the increased use of air
conditioning, computer equipment, and peripherals. Since
1990, this intensified usage has contributed to an annual
increase in electricity demand averaging almost 1.5 percent
per year. This trend is expected to continue throughout the
forecast period, even as more efficient appliances and office
equipment are used.
The planned projects,
together with expectations for growth in employment and
population, will require between 2,400 to 3,000 additional
MW of new electric capacity in or directly connected to the
City by 2025, just to accommodate peak load demand.
Plant Replacement
New
generation facilities are needed to replace New York City’s
aging power plants.Of the existing New York City electric generating
capacity, plants producing the equivalent of 3,500 MW will
be 60 years old or more in the next twenty years. Plants producing
about 6,000 MW will be 45 years old or older by 2025.
It is
assumed that approximately 3,000 MW of this aging generation
capacity will have to be replaced by 2025. The newer facilities
will be more energy efficient and feature better and cleaner
technology, thereby providing important environmental benefits
to the City.
Market Stability
To
help avoid wide swings in the price of electricity in the
newly deregulated electricity market, an estimated additional
1,000 MW of new electric capacity is needed by 2025. For New York City to realize the expected growth
in demand, there must be planning and approval mechanisms
in place to assure that electricity and other energy resources
are available.
Because the existing transmission system
limits the amount of power that can be imported into the
City, New York City is considered to be a ‘load pocket’.
Consequently, the New York State Reliability Council (NYSRC)
requires that 80 percent of peak load demand must be provided
by electric capacity located within the five boroughs of
New York City, or directly connected to the City’s
electric distribution system.
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