Electricity OUTLOOK:
Powering New York City through 2030

Table of Contents

Introduction and Background
Findings
Planning for Summer 2011
Supply and Demand of Electricity Capacity 2005-2010
The Outlook for Added Electricity Capacity in New York City 2011-2015
NYISO Forecasts for 2011-2021
Forecasting for the Important Summer Peak Demand
Assessing New York's Economy and the NYISO Forecasts
Looking Ahead to 2030
Conclusion

The Building Congress concludes that there is sufficient risk in the electricity supply and demand outlook in New York City in 2014-2016 to warrant immediate action. Given the possible retirement
of the Indian Point Energy Center, and the resulting implications for higher electricity prices, as well as the long lead time needed to bring new transmission and/or generation capacity online, plans must immediately focus on replacement capacity for the years 2014-2016, significantly earlier than the 2019-2020 period recommended by NYISO.

Based on information in NYISO's 2010 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA), and after considering projects that are either in construction or have been permitted, the Building Congress believes there is still a need for approximately 1,000 MW of additional electricity capacity in 2016 to meet resource adequacy requirements should Indian Point Units 2 and 3 be retired.

Furthermore, a strong case can be made that New York City's economy is poised for substantial growth in its commercial, infrastructure, and residential sectors in the years ahead.

With these concerns, this is not a situation for complacency but a call to action.

The passage of Article X legislation at the close of the State Legislature's spring 2011 session restores the streamlined process to authorize new investments in electricity supply. But even with
this important legislative achievement, the length of time involved in planning, permitting, and constructing new generating facilities dictates that projects need to begin immediately if the needs projected for 2014-2016 are to be met.

In addition, planning must now begin for New York City's intermediate and longer term electricity needs (2020-2030), to assure that sufficient generating and transmission capacity will be available, and that programs to enable significant achievements in energy efficiency and alternate energy sources are effectively implemented.