Electricity Outlook 2011

Introduction and Background

Since 2001, the Energy Committee of the New York Building Congress has published three reports that assessed New York City's future electricity needs. The 2006 report, Electricity Outlook: Powering New York City's Economic Future, concluded that 6,000 to 7,000 megawatts (MW) of new electricity resources would be needed between 2005 and 2025 to support the city's continued economic growth and increasing population. The report identified a "critical threshold" looming for the years 2010-2015, when available capacity could fall substantially below the statewide criteria established by the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO).

Since 2005, much needed resources, both in generation and transmission capacity, have been added or will soon come on stream to bolster New York City's available supply. At the same time, the significant recession of 2007-2009 has tempered growth in demand. The combination of events, on both the supply and the demand sides, has not only allayed concerns for adequate capacity in the years 2010-2015, but also has led NYISO to conclude, in its new long-term forecast to 2021, that "the adequacy of power resources is not an imminent concern" and that new capacity will not be needed until the years 2019 to 2020.¹

Electricity Outlook; Powering New York City Through 2030
analyzes forecasts of electricity demand and population and employment growth for New York City to 2030. This report also examines the assumptions underlying the NYISO forecast for the years 2011-2021 and the risks outlined in those forecasts. Major assumptions in the forecast are that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) operating licenses for Entergy's two Indian Point Energy Center nuclear plants will be renewed in 2013 and then in 2015, and that the sizeable targets set for energy efficiency can be achieved as projected. In addition, there is potential risk in the NYISO forecast's assumption of slow growth in the City's economy as it recovers from a difficult recession.

1 — Power Trends 2011, Energizing New York's Legacy of Leadership, NYISO, April 2011, p.12, and NYISO Reliability Needs Assessment, September 2010. In the press release of September 22, 2010, NYISO recognized that a stronger than forecast economy, absent the projected energy efficiency, would result in reliability risks by 2019.