Introduction and Background
Planning for Summer 2011
Supply and Demand of Electricity Capacity 2005-2010
The Outlook for Added Electricity Capacity in New York City 2011-2015
NYISO Forecasts for 2011-2021
Forecasting for the Important Summer Peak Demand
Assessing New York's Economy and the NYISO Forecasts
Looking Ahead to 2030
On the supply side, some 1,320 MW of new generation were added to the in-City capacity of New York City between 2005 and 2010, including the New York Power Authority's (NYPA) new 500 MW Combined-Cycle Power Plant in Astoria, commissioned in January 2006, which added net 470 MW; and the Astoria Energy plant, Phase I, with 547 MW, commissioned in April 2006. These two plants, with combined capacity of 1,017 MW, effectively replaced the capacity of the 890 MW Charles Poletti plant at Astoria, which ceased commercial operations as planned in January 2010. The added generating capacity was supplemented by the 300 MW Variable Frequency Transformer line (VFT) between Linden, New Jersey, and Staten Island.
The demand pattern during the 2005 to 2010 period demonstrated a juxtaposition of years with rapid growth in the economy and in energy use in 2005 and 2006 (peak summer demand spiked to record levels in the hot summer of 2006), against the declines caused by the significant recession of late 2007 to mid-2009. Job levels in New York City fell by 100,000 during 2009, a loss of 2.7 percent, and annual energy usage in the City dropped by 1,735 GWh, a loss of 3.2 percent. Job levels began to edge upwards in 2010 with a small gain of 0.4 percent, but the rebound in annual energy usage was much sharper, up 3.8 percent. 2
2 — This is sometimes referred to as the "slingshot effect''; a similar pattern occurred in 2004 when the City's economy was slowly recovering from recession and the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. With job growth of just 0.4 percent, annual energy usage increased by 3.7 percent. Note, however, that the annual energy usage in both examples is not adjusted for weather conditions; 2010 was a hot summer.