Introduction and Background
Planning for Summer 2011
Supply and Demand of Electricity Capacity 2005-2010
The Outlook for Added Electricity Capacity in New York City 2011-2015
NYISO Forecasts for 2011-2021
Forecasting for the Important Summer Peak Demand
Assessing New York's Economy and the NYISO Forecasts
Looking Ahead to 2030
Con Edison's outlook for the 2011-2021 decade is similar to the NYISO forecast, with the exception of a somewhat lower threshold of energy efficiency being accomplished in the City by the year 2021.
In its December 2010 report looking ahead to the year 2030, Con Edison presented two forecast scenarios for electricity demand in New York City. The baseline, or "Plan" scenario, as seen in the chart below, assumes an annual growth rate of 0.8 percent between 2020 and 2030, based on a moderate growth rate in the City's economy. The second scenario assumes a higher growth rate of 1.7 percent per year from 2020 to 2030, based on a stronger New York City economy.
Using the baseline forecast, summer peak demand in New York City would reach 13,935 MW in 2030, up from the 11,424 MW level in 2011. This forecast includes some 650 MW of power saved by energy efficiency over the two decades.
Using the higher growth scenario, summer peak demand in New York City would reach closer to 16,780 MW by 2030.
Much depends, of course, on the outlook for both population and economic growth over the next two decades. The City of New York's expectation is that population will reach nine million by 2030, a gain of approximately 600,000 above the level estimated in 2010. The population forecast prepared by the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council (NYMTC) in 2009 is similar, with levels of approximately nine million expected. NYMTC's long-term economic outlook for the City also suggests that total employment levels could reach as high as 5.5 million by 2030.