Introduction and Background
Planning for Summer 2011
Supply and Demand of Electricity Capacity 2005-2010
The Outlook for Added Electricity Capacity in New York City 2011-2015
NYISO Forecasts for 2011-2021
Forecasting for the Important Summer Peak Demand
Assessing New York's Economy and the NYISO Forecasts
Looking Ahead to 2030
Based on official forecasts for electricity demand and supply for New York City from 2011-2021, the Building Congress concludes that two alternative outlooks must be considered:
Scenario A: As long as the relicensing of the Indian Point Energy Center remains uncertain, and in the event that its NRC operating licenses are not renewed, analysis of the electricity capacity needed in New York City suggests that new supply is needed by 2014-2016, not 2019-2020 as forecast by NYISO.
Scenario B: Should Indian Point be relicensed and continue to operate, the outlook for the City's electricity demand could increase if a stronger New York City economy fosters greater demand growth than NYISO predicts; and/or if lesser than projected energy efficiency is achieved.
The circumstances posed in either Alternatives A or B suggest there is little room for complacency if vital electricity supply is to be available for New York City's residents, businesses, and cultural, educational, and medical establishments by mid-decade. Considering the time needed for planning, approval, and construction, every effort needs to be made now to deliver the generating and transmission capacity needed for the 2014-2016 period.
Electricity Outlook; Powering New York City Through 2030, the fourth in a continuing series, was prepared with the assistance of Rosemary Scanlon, consultant in urban and regional economics, for the Energy Committee of the New York Building Congress. The Building Congress acknowledges the assistance of and/or information from Con Edison, the New York Power Authority (NYPA) and the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO).
Funding for this report was provided by: ATCO Properties, Con Edison, Deepwater Wind, Durr Mechanical, Entergy, E-J Electric, Navillus Energy, New York Affordable Reliable Electricity Alliance (NY AREA), New York Energy Consumers Council, New York Power Authority (NYPA), Posillico Civil, Rudin Management, SH Group, Skanska USA, Spectra Energy, and STV.