Electricity Outlook 2017: Powering New York City's Future

Introduction

New York City is facing a confluence of events that will impact the availability of an adequate supply of electricity for homes, businesses, and public facilities throughout the five boroughs by 2027, if not sooner. New York City's anticipated economic and population growth over the next decade, combined with the announced closure of Entergy's two Indian Point nuclear power plants by 2021 and the potential retirement of the city's aging electricity generating plants, presents significant risks to the city's electricity supply outlook that merit immediate action.

Consider that summer peak demand, the key criterion for planning and providing the supply of electricity to New York City, is forecast by the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) to climb to 12,359 megawatts (MW) in 2021 and to 12,788 MW in 2027 from a summer peak of 10,990 MW in 2016.

While NYISO estimates that 726 MW of power can be saved through energy efficiency measures by 2027, now is the time for New York State to identify and secure additional sources of capacity and heightened efficiency measures so that they are in place in advance of Indian Point's scheduled closure.

This report provides an analysis of the electricity demand and supply forecast for New York City through 2027, while also identifying risks to the supply forecast and offering recommendations to address those risks.¹

Indian Point's Two Nuclear Power Plants, Courtesy of Entergy

 

_{¹ This forecast for the years through 2027 is the time frame of NYISO's official forecast for electricity demand and supply; 2017 is the base year of NYISO's latest forecast. New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), 2017 Load & Capacity Data "Gold Book" (April 2017).}