Electricity Outlook 2011

NYISO Forecasts for 2011-2021

In April 2011, NYISO released new and updated forecasts for New York State and its regions including New York City, for annual and summer peak energy consumption through 2021. The release, contained in the "2011 Load & Capacity Data", or Gold Book report, and in Power Trends 2011, stated that:

The immediate outlook for New York (State)'s electric system is positive. As
a result of developments that have contributed to a more reliable system over
the past decade, as well as planned additions in the near future, the adequacy
of power resources is not an imminent concern . . . If demand grows as
currently forecasted, it will take at least 10 years for a capacity need to occur,
assuming planned additions occur and there are no unplanned retirements.¹²

The NYISO report cites three factors that have contributed to the positive outlook for the 2011- 2021 period:

• 8,600 MW of new generation that has been built in the State since 2000, 80 percent of which has been in the downstate area of New York City, Long Island, and the Hudson Valley.
• New "demand response programs" that encouraged customers to reduce power during periods of peak demand have provided 2,500 MW of capability statewide in 2010. During New York City's heat wave in July 2010, "these demand response programs provided nearly 400 MW to reduce peak demand."
• The development of new interstate transmission connectors that added 1,290 MW to New York City and Long Island.

In addition, the NYISO forecast assumes substantial energy savings through a variety of conservation measures, which if successful would lower summer peak demand in New York City by about 1,000 MW by 2021.

12— Power Trends 2011, p. 12.