Electricity Outlook 2011

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It is important to note that weather, not just the economic cycle, is a significant indicator of energy demand, as can be seen in the chart of summer peak usage, below. Electricity use increased sharply in the record hot summer of 2006. Peak demand also soared in the hot summer of 2010 and in July of 2011.

The electricity supply available for each summer peak period becomes the critical target for any year, particularly during this past decade as the City and country have experienced some of the hottest years on record.

In New York City, summer peak usage reached a record high of 11,424 MW this July, surpassing the previous demand peaks recorded in 2010 and 2006. These hot summers have been compounded by boom years in the City's economy between 2006 and mid-2008, by continued population growth, and, despite the recent recession, by the steady increase in the amount of electricity consumed per household for consumer electronic devices such as air conditioners, computers, cellular phones, and flat-screen televisions.

In the 2011-2021 period, NYISO forecasts that New York City's summer peak demand will grow to 12,758 MW by the summer of 2021. This forecast assumes that just over 900 MW of power will be "saved" through energy efficiency measures put in place by 2021. Before the assumption of energy savings, the forecast growth rate would be 1.7 percent per year. In either forecast, the rate of growth is expected to be stronger in the latter five years of 2016 to 2021.