Electricity Outlook 2017: Powering New York City's Future

Risks To The Forecast

There are several risks to the NYISO forecast of resource adequacy for New York City's electrical supply through 2027.

• The scheduled retirement of the two energy generating units at the Indian Point Energy Center by 2021 suggest the immediate need for the State of New York to plan for new transmission and/or new generation to provide sufficient electricity capacity for New York City by 2021.
• The lack of final permitting for additional transmission lines to New York City poses a significant threat to the city's electricity supply by 2021.
• While an estimated 726 MW can be saved through 2027 from energy efficiency, solar PV, and other behind-the-meter measures, issues concerning storage and behind-themeter tariffs will impact the extent to which those savings will be realized. Improvements in storage and metering technologies, as well as regulatory changes, are needed to address these issues.
• It has recently become evident that new pipeline capacity for natural gas supply into New York City will be needed within the forecast period to 2027.
• There is no provision for addressing the potential retirement of any of the city's aging fleet of in-city generators in the 2017-2027 period. More than 50 percent, or approximately 5,500 MW, of in-city generation is produced by plants that are more than 40 years old.

There are no new generating facilities or new transmission systems planned for New York City during this 2017-2027 forecast period.

_{Transco Pipeline Facilities in New Jersey, Courtesy of Williams}